Product Requirements Document

Product Name: GhostDraft

1. Overview

GhostDraft is an AI-powered simulation app that allows users to test alternate life decisions in a structured, probabilistic way. Users input a potential decision, and the system generates realistic long-term scenario branches based on behavioral modeling, economic data, psychological profiles, and environmental variables.

GhostDraft is not motivational. It is a consequence engine.

2. Problem Statement

People make major life decisions with limited simulation:

• Career changes
• Relocation
• Starting or ending relationships
• Launching companies
• Financial risks

Most decisions are made based on emotion, anecdotes, or surface-level analysis.

There is no system that:

• Models second-order consequences.
• Surfaces compounding effects.
• Compares long-term probability trees across decisions.
• Makes tradeoffs visible in structured form.

GhostDraft solves this by simulating decision trees with probabilistic realism.

3. Vision

To become the world’s first personal consequence simulator.

GhostDraft enables users to:

• Explore alternate futures.
• Understand risk surfaces.
• Evaluate tradeoffs rationally.
• See compounding impacts over 1, 5, 10, and 20 years.

4. Target Users

Primary

• 22–40 year olds making high-impact life decisions.
• Entrepreneurs evaluating major bets.
• Professionals considering relocation or industry shifts.

Secondary

• Financial planners.
• Career coaches.
• University students choosing career paths.

5. Core Use Cases

1. Simulate quitting a job to start a company.
2. Compare staying in current city vs relocating.
3. Model investing in a startup vs diversified portfolio.
4. Evaluate taking a lower-paying job with higher upside.
5. Simulate delaying a decision by 1–3 years.

6. Core Features

6.1 Decision Input Interface

User inputs:

• Decision description.
• Current baseline state.
• Risk tolerance level.
• Time horizon.

Optional structured fields:

• Financial state.
• Relationship status.
• Career trajectory.
• Health baseline.

6.2 Scenario Engine

For each decision, GhostDraft generates:

• Best-case branch.
• Median expected branch.
• Worst-case branch.
• Volatility branch.
• Black swan branch.

Each branch includes:

• Financial trajectory.
• Career progression.
• Relationship impact.
• Psychological load.
• Lifestyle tradeoffs.

6.3 Probabilistic Modeling Layer

System uses:

• Economic trend data.
• Industry growth projections.
• Behavioral outcome modeling.
• Historical outcome distributions.

Outputs include:

• Probability heatmaps.
• Compounding delta over baseline.
• Confidence intervals.

6.4 Comparative View

Side-by-side comparison of:

• Decision A vs Decision B.
• 1 year delta.
• 5 year delta.
• 10 year compounding outcome.

Clear visualized tradeoff matrix.

6.5 Regret Minimization Score

AI estimates:

• Expected regret likelihood.
• Opportunity cost exposure.
• Decision reversibility index.
• Long-term identity alignment score.

6.6 Timeline Visualizer

Interactive timeline showing:

• Inflection points.
• Risk spikes.
• Opportunity windows.
• Compounding divergence between branches.

7. Non-Goals

• Not a fortune telling app.
• Not astrology.
• Not motivational coaching.
• Not therapy.

This is a structured probabilistic simulator.

8. Technical Architecture

8.1 Frontend

• Next.js
• Interactive timeline charts
• Scenario branching visualization
• Desktop-first experience

8.2 Backend

• TypeScript
• Simulation engine microservice
• Event-driven computation pipeline

8.3 AI Layer

• LLM for scenario narrative generation.
• Structured decision extractor.
• Monte Carlo simulation module.
• Historical dataset embedding retrieval.

8.4 Data Sources

• Public economic data.
• Labor market projections.
• Industry growth rates.
• Behavioral outcome datasets.

9. Data Model (High-Level)

Decision

• id
• description
• baseline_state
• risk_tolerance
• time_horizon
• created_at

ScenarioBranch

• id
• decision_id
• branch_type
• probability_estimate
• projected_outcomes
• narrative_summary

OutcomeProjection

• financial_projection
• career_progression
• lifestyle_score
• stress_index
• relationship_delta

10. Key Metrics

Product Metrics

• Simulations run per user.
• Return simulation rate.
• Comparative decision sessions.
• Average time per simulation.

Behavioral Metrics

• Decision confidence shift.
• Post-decision follow-up engagement.
• Simulation-to-real-world decision conversion rate.

11. Monetization

• Free: 3 simulations per month.
• Pro: $25/month unlimited simulations.
• Premium: $75/month advanced modeling + advisor-grade exports.

Future:

• Institutional version for advisors.
• University licensing.
• Enterprise strategic decision planning module.

12. Security & Privacy

• Encrypted personal data.
• No resale of personal scenario data.
• Local simulation option.
• Full export and deletion rights.

13. Launch Strategy

Phase 1:

• Early beta targeting founders and tech professionals.

Phase 2:

• Viral hook: “Simulate Your Life in 10 Years.”

Phase 3:

• Partnerships with financial influencers and career platforms.

14. Risks

1. Overreliance on projections.
2. Users misinterpreting probabilistic outputs as certainty.
3. Data bias in modeling assumptions.

Mitigation:

• Clear uncertainty indicators.
• Explicit disclaimers.
• Transparent modeling methodology.

15. Success Criteria

GhostDraft succeeds when:

• Users report improved decision clarity.
• Simulations directly influence major life decisions.
• Repeat usage rate exceeds 40% monthly.
• Users share comparative simulations socially.

16. Long-Term Vision

GhostDraft evolves into:

• A personal decision intelligence layer.
• A dynamic life simulation dashboard.
• A consequence engine integrated into career, finance, and relationship platforms.

End of PRD.